More Opportunistic Scaremongering?

Wellington may just have dodged a devastating earthquake.

Scientists estimate that an average of one magnitude-7 quake will strike New Zealand every 10 years and a magnitude 8 once a century. A 7.8 magnitude quake hit Fiordland in July.
If the same quake had struck in a more populated area such as Wellington, its impact could well have resulted in thousands of deaths.

Interestingly, even though instrumental records have been kept in New Zealand only since 1903, Richter ratings have been given to earthquakes prior to that time.

New Zealand has had a "dream run" for the past five decades, with "a remarkably low number of large damaging quakes for a country that has similar earthquake activity to California".

Characteristically it would appear that earthquakes in California are considerably more shallow than in New Zealand (30 cf. 60 Km depth), consequently are considerably more likely to result in damage ... the parallel drawn has to be somewhat specious.

There seems little basis for magnitude 7 and 8 earthquakes being equitably distributed, nor that 'probabilities' deduced from active areas resulting in damage need relate to the local setting .... certainly there is insufficient New Zealand data to deduce a magnitude 8 earthquake will occur here once a century.

Alcohol Consumption In Nz.

Now, I would not have believed that the current discussion of the alcohol 'problem' in NZ was simply a replication of the contrived 'obesity epidemic' wherein the scale used to indicate obesity was changed, and this to the extent that those subsequently categorised as within the healthy range were having more health problems than those within the slightly obese range. But then I saw this ...





“… our nation’s appalling drinking statistics” would appear to be almost totally derived from surveys and anecdotal evidence, and from this a rather tenuous leap made to attribute cause.



The survey statistics themselves,(http://www.aphru.ac.nz/projects/alcohol%202000%20results1.htm#_ftn1and http://www.moh.govt.nz/moh.nsf/pagesmh/5855/File/alcohol-use-in-new-zealand-2004.doc), could very well reflect changed attitudes towards drinking rather than be indicative of increased consumption, let alone ‘bing drinking’ - there does not appear to be available absolute quantities of alcohol sold juxtaposed with reputed consumption. This would proffer some validity to the consumption figures presented as most alcohol purchased is reputedly consumed within 24 hours of purchase. An increase of 2 litres per annum may well be a 21% increase in consumption (1995-2000) but it is not a great deal - two and a half bottles of wine over a year. It may also reflect a change in the definition of a standard drink, from 15 gm absolute alcohol to 10 (2004).I would have thought the postulated relationships with disease entities are simply that, ‘postulated.’Alcohol is an hypnosedative that has both predicable (tiredness, slowness of response) and unpredictable effects (disinhibition or reduced impulse control). Alcohol being associated with an event does not make it causative of that event. Intent is more often than not pre existing, and alcohol or other consumption occurs to expedite that event e.g. burglaries, violence, suicide, etc.I guess with no or minimal corresponding reduction in cancers resulting from the anti tobacco lobby it is easy to attribute their occurrence to anything else that can be seen as a ‘commodity of potential abuse.’ ‘Have you had more than six standard drinks at one sitting? Has this happened more than x times? Have you ever been unable to recall everything that occurred the day after?’ Poorly quantified correlation studies can be overly inclusive and quite specious.The charge of Sir Geoffrey and cohorts I see as quite populist and simplistic … the impact of unemployment, DPB., pretended high numbers in tertiary education and other ‘hidden’ means of taking structure or routine and meaning and value out of peoples lives is more the essence of this issue than what is being addressed.This is simply ‘well-intentioned’ wowserism, fortified by applying different criteria as to what constitutes ‘excess.’



And indeed ... a



Standard drink
In New Zealand, a standard drink is defined as the amount of beverage that contains 10 grams (or 12.67 millilitres) of absolute (pure) alcohol (ALAC 2004).

This definition of a standard drink differs from the definition used in the previous national surveys on alcohol use in New Zealand (Habgood et al 2001; Wyllie et al 1996), where a standard drink referred to 15 grams of absolute alcohol.



So now, drinking the same, we are drinking one third more!



Perhaps it is time that our political scientists returned to their core business, to endeavour to regain considerable of their lost integrity ... for this is simply appears more mirepresentation of information in pursuance of an agenda.

I Thought Salinger Was Toast.

last month was the warmest August New Zealand has seen since temperatures were first recorded 155 years ago.
New Zealanders could thank strong westerly winds coming off Australia for an average temperature almost 2degC warmer than usual, said Auckland climate scientist Jim Salinger.

... and juxtaposed with ...

Niwa's outlook for spring said New Zealanders c ould continue to expect warmer weather than usual throughout September, although there was likely to be a change mid-spring.

So is this scaremongerer, this gorebuller, back with NIWA, or is this simply the Herald misrepresenting the situation?
Incidentally, the amount of snowfall in August and -2 degree temperatures on the way to work would suggest just a little tinkering ... why there is still snow on the surrounding hills.

Update: A scientist sacked by the National Insitute of Water and Atmospheric Research has used its data to show New Zealand had the warmest August on record - two hours before the agency could make public the information.
Auckland climate scientist Jim Salinger issued the figures yesterday ahead of Niwa's official August report.

and, update:Winter is expected to have one last hurrah with snow forecast over much of the country until the weekend.

Now There's A Thought.

A big increase in the number of primary school children suspended for violent acts is being blamed on the removal of corporal punishment in schools.
Figures from the Ministry of Education show a 88 per cent increase in suspensions of eight-year-olds from 2000 to 2008 for assaults on classmates, a 73 per cent rise for seven-year-olds, a 70 per cent increase for six–year-olds while the suspensions over the same period had increased by 33 per cent for five-year-olds.
"It is significant that as schools have removed corporal punishment, schools have become more violent," Family First national director Bob McCoskrie said today.

Now there may just be something to that ... it was certainly a more time-limited approach than reasoning them in to good behaviour and almost always was effective ... not so reason or reasoning which requires a reasonable and reasonably skilled person for it to work - not many adults can achieve this let alone an indisciplined out of control kid.

Sponsoring Events.

There probably is a good reason why companies that sponsor 'travelling science road shows' to schools should view the shows before they are toured.
A more comprehensively Green agenda would be hard to imagine ... global warming, new Kyoto Protocol, CO2, methane ... & featuring cows as environmental destroyers.

Such receptive audiences, such an exciting fast-paced presentation, such credibility, such 'buy in' by teachers and hence perpetuation ensured .... such self-inflicted, sponsored, 'shooting of oneself in the foot' ... absolutely, irresponsibly, incredible!

Now Who Really Is Redefining 'Family' In NZ?

The acting principal Family Court judge wants the law changed so de facto and same-sex couples can adopt children.
Paul von Dadelszen says the 2004 Civil Union Act and changes to property legislation have put people in de facto relationships and same-sex couples on the same footing as married couples.
But Judge von Dadelszen says the 1955 Adoption Act was left out of that raft of legislation, and at the moment the only people allowed to adopt a child are married, heterosexual couples.
He says the Adoption Act was drafted according to the norms of 1950s society, but is outdated and has become unjustly discriminatory.

Demographics or the 'experts?'

more police may not solve problems

A report into policing in South Auckland says a promised 300 new frontline police may not solve the district's problems long-term.

.... but if the increased number of frontline police are visible, increase the probability of consequences for offending and the immediacy of those consequences, they will have a dramatic and immediate effect on crime.