NIWA Unfilled Vacancy.

The Southern Alps' 12 biggest glaciers had crossed a "tipping point" into faster melting as they respond to regional warming, said National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research principal scientist Jim Salinger.

Smaller glaciers, having rapidly adjusted to regional warming earlier, had not receded much in the past 20 years or in a few cases have slightly advanced. They include two well-known West Coast glaciers, the Fox and the Franz Josef

Smaller glaciers, having rapidly adjusted to regional warming earlier, had not receded much in the past 20 years or in a few cases have slightly advanced. They include two well-known West Coast glaciers, the Fox and the Franz Josef

Smaller glaciers, having rapidly adjusted to regional warming earlier, had not receded much in the past 20 years or in a few cases have slightly advanced. They include two well-known West Coast glaciers, the Fox and the Franz Josef

(this is repeated because it needs repeating).


Salinger says, "it is already clear that they will not return to their earlier lengths without extraordinary cooling of the climate because the large lakes now block their advance"... so it is the lakes, the obstruction that is stopping the progress of these glaciers .. if indeed they are reducing as obviously the most visited and visible (Fox and Franz Joseph) are increasing.

New Zealand's glaciers are shrinking. Startling pictures taken from space 17 years apart show the extent of the retreat of the Tasman, Hooker and Mueller Glaciers in the Southern Alps.
The first picture was taken by a Nasa satellite on December 30, 1990, and the second picture was taken on December 6, 2007.

Indeed, bigger lake, retreated glacier ... but greater snow cover. Global warming? "Tipping point?"

To emphatically state these changes have occurred and stating causal relationships is somewhat surprising when ...

New Zealand Climate Science Coalition (2007). World climate predictors right only half the time. Media release 7 June. Available at http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC0706/S00026.htm


Taylor (2007) compared seasonal forecasts by New Zealand’s National Institute of
Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) with outcomes for the period May 2002 to
April 2007. He found NIWA’s forecasts of average regional temperatures for the
season ahead were 48% correct, which was no more accurate than chance. That this is a general result was confirmed by New Zealand climatologist Jim Renwick, who
observed that NIWA’s low success rate was comparable to that of other forecasting
groups worldwide. He added that “Climate prediction is hard, half of the variability in the climate system is not predictable, and so we don’t expect to do terrifically well.”
Renwick is a co-author with Working Group I of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report, and
also serves on the World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology
Expert Team on Seasonal Forecasting. His expert view is that current GCM climate
models are unable to predict future climate any better than chance (New Zealand
Climate Science Coalition 2007).

None the less we find ...

Warm winters may be rousing hibernating pet tortoises early and endangering their lives but there is a solution, experts say – keep them through the winter in the fridge ... Tortoises hibernate through the winter but need to keep their body temperature between 3 and 5 degrees Celsius.

But ...
There have been a number of indications that January 2008 has been an exceptional month for winter weather in not only North America, but the entire Northern Hemisphere. We’ve had anecdotal evidence of odd weather in the form of wire reports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and China where record setting cold and snow has been felt with intensity not seen for 30-100 years, depending on the region.

From our remote sensing groups, we have reports of significant negative anomalies in both the RSS and UAH global satellite data for the lower troposphere. Then there’s NOAA’s announcement that January 2008, was below 20th century averages, plus news that Arctic sea ice has quickly recovered from the record low extent of Summer 2007. Finally, there’s the massive La Nina said to be the driver of all this but may be a harbinger of a more permanent phase shift according to veteran forecaster Joe Bastardi.

So perhaps the fridge is a good idea ... maintaining that narrow optimal temperature range for the turtles ... and of course this would be good beit the ambient temperatures are too high or too low ... and it would appear they are indeed low.

GLOBAL WARMING: FORECASTS BY SCIENTISTS
VERSUS SCIENTIFIC FORECASTS

The forecasts in the (IPCC) Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures. In
effect, they were the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and
obscured by complex writing. Research on forecasting has shown that experts’
predictions are not useful in situations involving uncertainly and complexity. We
have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts of global warming. Claims that
the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder.

Now this is certainly consistent with Taylor's (2007) results.

Taylor, M. (2007). An evaluation of NIWA’s climate predictions for May 2002 to April 2007.
Climate Science Coalition. Available at
http://www.climatescience.org.nz/assets/2007691051580.ClimateUpdateEvaluationText.pdf
Data available at
http://www.climatescience.org.nz/assets/2007691059100.ClimateUpdateEvaluationCalc.xls.pdf

And ...

Back in 1991, before Al Gore first shouted that the Earth was in the balance, the Danish Meteorological Institute released a study using data that went back centuries that showed that global temperatures closely tracked solar cycles.
To many, those data were convincing. Now, Canadian scientists are seeking additional funding for more and better "eyes" with which to observe our sun, which has a bigger impact on Earth's climate than all the tailpipes and smokestacks on our planet combined.
And they're worried about global cooling, not warming.

And regarding the unfilled vacancy ... NIWA has a strong programme of measurement and modelling of atmospheric trace gases, including greenhouse gases. A particular strength is the long-term measurement of carbon isotopes in carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and methane in both contemporary air and air extracted from polar ice, and their interpretation. This is linked to a wider effort to improve knowledge of human impacts on the atmosphere that will help mitigate changes in atmospheric constituents and the wider climate system. Research effort is also targeted at mitigation measures to reduce agricultural emissions and improve the accuracy of reported national emissions.

... so again the the stated 'causal relationship' is a given ... what point science?