last month was the warmest August New Zealand has seen since temperatures were first recorded 155 years ago.
New Zealanders could thank strong westerly winds coming off Australia for an average temperature almost 2degC warmer than usual, said Auckland climate scientist Jim Salinger.
... and juxtaposed with ...
Niwa's outlook for spring said New Zealanders c ould continue to expect warmer weather than usual throughout September, although there was likely to be a change mid-spring.
So is this scaremongerer, this gorebuller, back with NIWA, or is this simply the Herald misrepresenting the situation?
Incidentally, the amount of snowfall in August and -2 degree temperatures on the way to work would suggest just a little tinkering ... why there is still snow on the surrounding hills.
Update: A scientist sacked by the National Insitute of Water and Atmospheric Research has used its data to show New Zealand had the warmest August on record - two hours before the agency could make public the information.
Auckland climate scientist Jim Salinger issued the figures yesterday ahead of Niwa's official August report.
and, update:Winter is expected to have one last hurrah with snow forecast over much of the country until the weekend.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
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3 comments:
The trouble is, records don't go back to 1854. There was one station at Albert Park that opened in 1863. Even one is no good as there has to be two in a location so they can verify each other. The NZ Metservice was established in 1926. Seeing you have to wait 30 years to achieve a national average, nothing before 1956 can be validated. So Salinger could be 100 years out.
I have no doubt that Salinger is, and has been trying to get atop the populist 'global warming gravy train' for a considerable time and that hyperbole has been a significant strategy in his endeavour to achieve this.
Of equivalent concern is NIWA's predilection with principal components analyses in pursuit of predictive models ... these boys stretch statistical method to the extremes and then bend it round corners.
It would be interesting to know from whence their new 'mega computer,' a necessary tool for giving greater credibility to their 'predictions or predilections' was funded and what conditions were placed on this purchase.
The mega computer just means they will now be able to make mega mistakes paid for by the tax payer. What they don't get is that analysing averages or the properties of the atmosphere will not help them predict the weather. The weather deals to the atmosphere, not the other way around.
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